Driving test backlog will rumble on until January 2024 (ANJC)

This item from our sponsors Marmalade was first released in January this year, but is still relevant now, possibly even more so.  We thought you'd like another chance to read it.

With the 2020/21 lockdowns causing carnage to the driving test booking system, we have seen a backlog rumbling on throughout the last 12 months. Learners have struggled to book tests, have spent more money, with some even forced to travel far and wide to secure a test.

Although back in March last year we predicted the backlog would clear by the end of this month, we’ve noticed the problem has compounded as demand outweighed supply. With learners up and down the country agonising over when they may finally be able to book a driving test we thought we’d take a deep dive into the issue and recalculate when the backlog will clear.

With this demand in mind, our research has found the DVSA only has the capacity to conduct an estimated 130,622 tests per month, according to an average taken from Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures of conducted driving tests in 2021***. This means there is a greater demand for tests than there are slots available in January. We can therefore predict there will be a backlog of 113,755 tests at the end of the month which can only be taken in February at the earliest.

By taking into account the excess tests rolled over from January, 113,755, the number of tests already booked in February, 108,104, and the estimated number of learners who will go on to try and book their test next month, 110,830, we can calculate there will be a demand for 332,689 tests in February. By forecasting the maximum of 130,622 tests which will be carried out in February, we can estimate the driving test backlog will grow to 202,067 by the end of next month.

With the demand for driving tests set to far outweigh the number of slots available at the start of this year, the driving test backlog will reach its peak in May when there’ll be more than half a million (520,581) learners wanting to book a test.

Although the backlog will slowly begin to clear from June onwards, there will still be more than 250,000 learners waiting to book their test at the start of 2023 - a stark reminder of the depth of this issue. In fact, it won’t be until August next year when the backlog dips back below 100,000 people.

The finish line will however be in sight as winter approaches in 2023 and by the end of December the backlog will be down to less than 20,000 people.

January 2024 is the month learner drivers will be holding out for though as the demand for driving tests, 126,541, will finally fall below the availability of tests, 130,622.